Case studies in measuring whether AI systems work.

Evaluations of anomaly detection, model comparisons and agent-written code, with the numbers that mattered and the ones that didn’t.

Precision of one anomaly detector under two alert rules

Flag a fixed percentile 0.12
Flag the top 20 (alert budget) 0.60
Same model, same data, five times fewer false alarms. Simulated dataset with 12 anomalies among 26,988 normal items. From Measuring an anomaly detector: ROC AUC 0.9998, precision 0.12.

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